Former Japanese Prime Minister Abe has been assassinated, focus on US jobs report

Notes/Observations

-Markets lower as risk appetite takes a brief pause after the longest daily bull run of the year so far. Markets are gearing up for US nonfarm payrolls next week and the start of the earnings season.

-The strong dollar puts pressure on GBP and EUR as EUR/USD approaches parity for the first time since 2002.

– Former Japanese Prime Minister Abe, a champion of the country’s Abenomics policy, was assassinated during a campaign speech. JPY rose after the shooting was first announced.

-Asia finished mixed, with Shanghai underperforming as a city health official warned the risk of Covid transmission is still high. EU indices are -0.2-1.0% lower with bond yields in the red. US futures in negative territory. Safe Haven: Gold -0.2%, DXY +0.4%; Commodities: Brent -0.5%, WTI -0.9%, Copper -2.5%, UK Nat Gas -0.2%; Speculative: BTC +4.4%, ETH +2.6%

Asia

– Former Japanese Prime Minister Abe was shot dead while making a campaign speech in Nara.

– Elections to the Japanese House of Lords next weekend. PM Kishida’s LDP party is expected to gain ~60 seats from the current 55 seats.

– China Property Developers reportedly received $13 billion in USD denominated bond payments in H2.

Ukraine conflict

– Russia’s President Putin said the US-led West had been “extremely aggressive” towards Russia for decades; Sanctions caused difficulties, but not to the extent intended.

– Russia’s Foreign Minister Min Lavrov said he had no idea when grain talks between Russia, Ukraine and Turkey could take place.

America

– President Biden said he will call a meeting with advisers on Friday to discuss cutting China’s tariffs.

– Fed’s Waller (hawk, voter) expressed support of 75 basis points at the July meeting and likely for a 50 basis point increase at the September meeting; Required to switch to a much more restrictive setting, and fast.

– Fed’s Bullard (hawker voter) said it would make sense to go 75 basis points in July; would not be surprising if the housing market were to cool down.

Speakers/Fixed Income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Shares

indices [Stoxx600 -0.33% at 413.64, FTSE -0.16% at 7,177.50, DAX -0.35% at 12,797.37, CAC-40 -0.61% at 5,970.34, IBEX-35 -0.96% at 8,044.74, FTSE MIB -0.08% at 21,541.00, SMI +0.28% at 10,972.00, S&P 500 Futures -0.41%].

Market Focus/Key Themes: European indices open slightly lower and slipped further into the red as the session progressed; better performing sectors are consumer discretionary and financials; Sectors trending lower include Materials and Real Estate; Banking sub-sector under pressure after ECB climate sustainability report; Essity acquires Kinx Wear; Nordic Semic Acquires Mobile Semi; no major gains expected in the upcoming US session.

Shares

– Consumer Discretionary: Alma Media [ALMO.FI] +3% (increases outlook), Ubisoft [UBI.FR] -6% (analyst action), science in sports [SIS.UK] -26% (Trade Update).

– Consumer Staples: ForFarmers [FFARM.NL] +17% (increases outlook).

– Technology: Infineon [IFX.DE] -1% (TSMC sales).

– Real Estate: TAG Real Estate [TEG.DE] -12% (capital increase).

speaker

– Visco of the ECB (Italy) reiterated the Council’s position to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July; A larger hike of 25 basis points could be appropriate in September if medium-term inflation expectations do not improve. The pace of further gradual tightening should be data-dependent. Inflation will increase in 2022 (this year) and return to target in 2024. No signs of a wage spiral at the moment. The mentioned Italy/Germany spread of 250 basis points earlier this year was not consistent with Italy’s fundamentals.

– Climate stress tests of the ECB banks saw a loss potential of >€70bn. The 41 largest banks would suffer credit and market losses of over €70 billion from higher carbon prices, floods and droughts.

– Coordination of the development budget of the Philippines (DBCC) updated the economic outlook, which raised the GDP growth forecast for 2022 to 7.5% from 6.5%. momentum to continue.

– Former Japanese Prime Minister Abe pronounced dead from wounds sustained after the shooting.

Currencies/Fixed Income

– USD continued its firm tone with focus on monthly US jobs report.

– EUR/USD tested fresh 20-year lows below the 1.01 level as recession concerns in the EU saw the pair’s momentum shift towards parity. Traders noted that the energy crisis caused by gas uncertainty from Russia could plunge the region into recession.

– Daily 3-month Euribor fixing: -0.087% vs. -0.141% before (highest since end-2015).

economic data

– (FI) Finland May Industrial Production M/M: 0.4% vs. 3.5% previously; Y/Y: 5.5% vs. 6.8% previously.

– (NO) Norway Q2 house price index Q/Q: 1.7% vs. 2.5% previously.

– (RO) Romania Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 5.1% vs. 5.2% preliminary; Y/Y: 6.4% vs. 6.5% e.

– (FR) France May Trade Balance: -€13.0bn vs -€12.7bn; Current account: €-3.9 billion compared to €-2.7 billion previously.

– (AT) Austria May Industrial Production M/M: 2.1% vs. 0.5% before; Y/Y: 11.4% vs. 7.1% previously.

– (HU) Hungary June CPI M/M: 1.5% vs. 1.3%e; Y/Y: 11.7% vs. 11.5%e.

– (TR) Turkey May Current Account: -$6.5B vs -$6.8Be.

– (TR) Turkish Central Bank Inflation Expectations Survey TCMB June: Next 12 months: 40.2% vs. 37.9% before.

– (CN) Shanghai Copper Weekly Stocks (SHFE): 69.4k vs. 66.7k tons previously.

– (TH) Thailand Foreign Reserves w/e Jul 1: $221.9bn vs. $230.3bn previously.

– (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply on 1 July (RUB): 14.17T vs. 14.20T before.

– (IT) Italy May Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% vs. -1.4%e; y/y: 3.4% vs. 3.9%; Industrial production NSA (unadjusted) y/y: % vs -3.1% previously.

– (CZ) Czech Jun International Reserves: $157.1bn vs. $167.6bn previously.

– (TW) Taiwan Trade Balance in June: $4.6bn vs. $2.8bn; Exports y/y: 15.2% vs. 15.3%e; Imports y/y: 19.2% vs. 25.5%e.

– UN FAO June World Food Price Index: 154.2 vs. 157.9 previously.

– (GR) Greece Jun CPI y/y: 12.1% vs. 11.3% previously; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 11.6% vs. 10.5% previously.

– (GR) Greece May Industrial production y/y: +3.2% vs. -4.8% previously.

– (HU) Hungary June YTD budget balance (HUF): -2.892T vs. -2.737T previously.

issue of fixed income securities

None seen.

looking ahead

– 05:25 (EU) ECB daily liquidity statistics.

– 05:30 (IN) India sells bonds totaling INR 330 billion in 2024, 2029, 2032 and 2061.

– 05:30 (ZA) South Africa collectively sells ZAR 1.2 billion in I/L 2033, 2038 and 2050 bonds.

– 06:00 (IE) Ireland June Live Register Monthly Change: No est v -1.3K before; Live Register Level: No est before v 176.8K.

– 06:00 (UK) DMO sells £3.5bn in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£1.0bn, £1.5bn and 1.0bn respectively billion pounds).

– 06:45 (US) Daily Libor fixing.

– 07:00 (IN) India announces forthcoming billing (held on Wednesday).

– 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve as of 1st July: No estimate vs $593.3bn previously.

– 07:30 (IS) Iceland sells 2024 and 2042 RIKB bonds.

– 07:45 (US) June CBIZ Small Business Employment Index: No estimate vs -1.91% previously.

– 07:55 (EU) Lagarde from the ECB speaks in France.

– 08:00 (PL) May Minutes of the Central Bank of Poland (before 2 decisions).

– 08:00 (UR) Ukraine Jun CPI M/M: No est v 2.7% before; Y/Y: No est v 18.0% before.

– 08:00 (IS) Iceland June Unemployment rate: None est vs. 3.9% previously.

– 08:00 (CL) Chile Jun CPI M/M: 1.1% ev 1.2% before; Y/Y: 12.7% possibly 11.5% before.

– 08:00 (BR) Brazil June IBGE Inflation IPCA M/M: 0.7% ev 0.5% before; Y/Y: 11.1% possibly 11.7% before.

– 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

– 08:30 (US) June Nonfarm payrolls change: +268Ke vs. +390K previously; Change in personal payroll: +237,000 vs. +333,000 before; Manufacturing Payroll Change: +21,000 vs. +18,000 previously.

– 08:30 (US) Jun Unemployment rate: 3.6%ev 3.6% before; Underemployment rate: No est v 7.1% before; Activity rate: 62.4% or 62.3% before.

– 08:30 (US) June Average hourly earnings M/M: 0.3% ev 0.3% before; Y/Y: 5.0% possibly 5.2% before; Average weekly hours: 34.6 ev 34.6 before.

– 08:30 (CA) Canada June Net employment change: +22.5k vs. +39.8k previously; Unemployment rate: 5.1% and 5.1% before; Full-time Employment Change: No est v +135,400 before; Change in part-time employment: No est v -95,800 before; Participation rate: 65.2% ev. 65.3% previously; Hourly rate: 5.4% or 4.5% before.

– 08:30 (CL) Chilean Central Bank trader survey.

– 08:30 (US) Weekly USDA Net Export Sales.

– 08:45 (DE) Schnabel (Germany) of the ECB in France.

– 09:00 (BR) Brazil June Vehicle Production: None est before 205,900; Vehicle Sales: No est v 187.1K before; Vehicle exports: No est v 46.1K before.

– 10:00 (US) May Wholesale Final Inventories M/M: 2.0%ev 2.0% preliminary; Wholesale Sales M/M: No est v 0.7% previously.

– 11:00 (USA) Willaims of the Fed.

– 11:00 (EU) Potential government ratings after the close in Europe.

– 12:00 (RU) Russia Jun CPI M/M: -0.3% ev +0.1% before; Y/Y: 16.0% possibly 17.1% before.

– 12:00 (RU) Russia Jun CPI Core M/M: 0.2% ev 0.4% before; Y/Y: 19.3% possibly 19.9% ​​before.

– 12:45 (EU) Villeroy (France) from the ECB speaks.

– 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.

– 15:00 (USA) May Consumer Credit: $30.0Be v $38.1B before.

– 21:30 (CN) China Jun CPI Y/Y: No estimate vs. 2.1% previously; PPI Y/Y: 6.0% possibly 6.4% before.